New projections forecast stable enrollment in Davis schools

Jeff Hudson | Enterprise staff writer

The Davis school district is looking at fairly stable enrollment for the coming decade, according to a new set of projections presented at Thursday’s school board meeting.
Scott Torlucci of Davis Demographics and Planning Inc., a Southern California-based firm that’s worked with the Davis schools for several years, rolled out a set of projections that show this year’s enrollment of 8,543 students gradually dipping to a projected 8,428 students by 2015-16. Then, enrollment is projected to rise again over a period of years to a projected 8,680 students by 2020-21.

Torlucci’s figures are based in part on long-term trends in the birth rate for Yolo County, as well as anticipated changes in the housing stock within the Davis school district. His projections include about 500 housing units planned in UC Davis’ West Village, with construction expected to get under way later this year; 110 units at Chiles Ranch on East Eighth Street, approved for development but not yet under construction; and 85 units in the Verona project on East Fifth Street near Alhambra Drive. Some of those homes are complete; others are still awaiting construction.

Torlucci’s projections do not include the 600-some homes that could be part of the Cannery project on the old Hunt-Wesson/ConAgra property north of Covell Boulevard at J Street. Torlucci observed that the decline in student numbers seen recently appears to have stabilized.

This article originally appeared in the Davis Enterprise on February 19, 2012. The complete story is available to subscribers at http://www.davisenterprise.com.